Deep Dive
Trending
Bangladesh’s Investment Farce: Summit Smiles While Mobs Burn
As the interim government courts global investors, fundamentalist supporters destroy the very businesses they seek to attract
As the global economy teeters on the precipice of a major recession, Bangladesh finds itself in a paradoxical situation that perfectly encapsulates the contradictions plaguing its interim government. On April 7, 2025, while government officials were busy courting international investors at the lavish Bangladesh Investment Summit 2025 at Dhaka’s Hotel Intercontinental, fundamentalist groups supporting the same administration were simultaneously attacking, vandalizing, and looting international business establishments across the country.
The stark juxtaposition could not be more telling: inside air-conditioned conference rooms, Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus and his team presented Bangladesh as an attractive investment destination to over 550 investors from 50 countries; outside on the streets, mobs targeted KFC outlets, Domino’s Pizza restaurants, and Bata showrooms in cities including Sylhet, Chattogram, Khulna, Barishal, and Cumilla—all under the banner of boycotting Israeli products. Perhaps most troubling was the conspicuous inaction of law enforcement, who largely stood by as silent spectators during these attacks, only issuing arrest orders hours after the damage was done.
This glaring contradiction raises serious questions about the interim government’s true economic agenda. Is Muhammad Yunus genuinely working to attract new investment to a country desperately in need of economic stability, or is this investment summit merely political theater while the administration tacitly allows actions that will inevitably drive foreign capital away? After eight months in power, the interim government’s economic record shows minimal progress in most sectors, while Yunus has managed to secure tax exemptions for his own business interests and approval for a university bearing his name.
Against the backdrop of slowing GDP growth, persistent inflation hovering near 10%, and deteriorating financial sector vulnerabilities, Bangladesh’s economic future hangs in the balance. This analysis examines the widening gap between the interim government’s public investment initiatives and the destructive reality playing out on Bangladesh’s streets—a disconnect that threatens to derail the nation’s economic trajectory at a time when global recession looms large.
Economic Context: Bangladesh at the Crossroads
Bangladesh’s economy, once celebrated for its resilient growth trajectory, now stands at a precarious crossroads as global recession fears intensify. According to World Bank data, the country’s real GDP growth has moderated significantly to 5.2% in FY24, down from 5.8% in FY23, marking a troubling downward trend. More concerning projections from financial analysts suggest growth could further decelerate to between 3% and 5% in 2025, potentially representing the weakest economic performance since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Inflation has remained stubbornly high, hovering at 9.94% as of January 2025, with consumers facing rising prices for essential goods and services for nearly two consecutive years. The Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) projects only marginal relief in the coming months, with inflation potentially easing to 9.85% in February and 9.7% in March—still significantly above comfortable levels for sustainable economic growth.
The financial sector exhibits increasing vulnerabilities, with the banking system requiring substantial reforms to rebuild public confidence. Foreign exchange reserves, which had been under strain for nearly three years, have only recently shown signs of stabilization. According to MCCI projections, gross forex reserves might cross $26 billion in March, but this remains well below the levels needed for long-term economic security.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has taken a significant hit, with a 20% year-on-year decline in the July-December period of FY25, according to recent reports. This troubling statistic was highlighted by Bida chairman Chowdhury Ashik Mahmud Bin Harun, who noted that investor confidence has been severely damaged following the political shift on August 5, 2024, and subsequent industrial unrest.
The industrial and services sectors have shown mixed performance, with manufacturing growth experiencing a sharp slowdown. Job opportunities have diminished across multiple sectors, creating additional pressure on a population already struggling with economic uncertainty. The investment climate remains sluggish, hampered by economic uncertainties, infrastructure constraints, and regulatory inconsistencies.
Trade indicators offer some of the few bright spots in an otherwise challenging economic landscape. Exports rose 12.8% year-on-year to $24.54 billion in the first half of FY25, primarily driven by the ready-made garments sector. Remittance inflows saw a 27.56% uptick in the same period, attributed to improved banking governance and foreign exchange stability. Consequently, the trade deficit narrowed year-on-year to $9.76 billion in the July-December period from $10.88 billion previously.
Despite these modest improvements in trade and remittances, the overall economic outlook remains concerning. The World Bank recently slashed its growth forecast for Bangladesh by 1.7 percentage points to 4% for fiscal 2024-25, while Moody’s has issued warnings about potential recession risks. Most economic indicators continue to trend downward, including revenue collection, private investments, capital equipment imports, and capital market performance.
As Bangladesh navigates these turbulent economic waters, the interim government’s ability to implement effective policies and create a stable environment for growth has come under increasing scrutiny. The country’s aspiration to achieve upper middle-income status now faces significant headwinds, requiring decisive action to address structural economic challenges and restore investor confidence in an increasingly uncertain global economic climate.
Investment Initiatives: The Bangladesh Investment Summit 2025
On April 7, 2025, the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (Bida) and the Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (Beza) jointly launched the four-day Bangladesh Investment Summit 2025 at Hotel InterContinental Dhaka. The high-profile event, designed to showcase the country’s investment landscape to the global community, represents the interim government’s most ambitious effort to date to attract foreign direct investment following the political transition of August 2024.
The summit has drawn over 550 registered investors from 50 countries, with China sending the largest delegation of approximately 100 business representatives. Other significant participating nations include the United States, United Kingdom, India, Singapore, and Japan. The event focuses on five priority sectors identified as having substantial growth potential: renewable energy, digital economy, textile and apparel, healthcare and pharmaceuticals, and agro-processing.
Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus is scheduled to formally inaugurate the summit on April 9, where he will meet with business delegations from Germany, China, and South Korea. The summit includes several notable initiatives, including a demonstration of Starlink’s live internet connectivity and discussions about a potential non-military space exploration deal with NASA. Additionally, the Bangladesh Startup Connect 2025—a flagship segment of the summit—was launched on the first day, bringing together global investors, startup founders, and ecosystem enablers.
Speaking at a press conference on April 6, Chowdhury Ashik Mahmud Bin Harun, executive chairman of Bida and Beza, emphasized the summit’s importance: “Foreign investors need a clearer understanding of Bangladesh’s economic landscape and growth potential. This summit will not only showcase investment opportunities but also highlight the reforms undertaken to create a more business-friendly environment.”
The summit represents a critical component of Muhammad Yunus’s broader economic vision for Bangladesh. Since assuming the role of Chief Adviser in the caretaker government, Yunus has advocated for a new economic model focused on serving human needs rather than maximizing profits. At the World Governments Summit in February 2025, he called for businesses to address societal issues like healthcare, education, and technology without the sole purpose of generating profits—an extension of his long-championed concept of “social business.”
Yunus’s economic thinking centers on creating enterprises that solve social problems while being financially self-sustainable, with profits reinvested rather than distributed to shareholders. This approach aligns with his stated goal of building “a world without poverty, unemployment, or environmental degradation through social business.”
However, the investment summit occurs against a backdrop of troubling economic indicators. Foreign direct investment fell by 20% year-on-year in the July-December period of FY25, reflecting damaged investor confidence following the political transition and subsequent industrial unrest. The interim government faces the challenging task of reversing this trend while simultaneously addressing structural economic weaknesses.
As part of the investment push, the government has announced several initiatives to improve the business climate. During the summit’s startup segment, officials revealed plans to establish new funds to boost the startup sector, including a Tk 900 crore fund from Bangladesh Bank. Additionally, reforms in business licensing and finance are being implemented to ease operations for both domestic and international companies.
The summit also includes visits to Export Processing Zones and Economic Zones for more than 60 foreign investors, providing firsthand exposure to Bangladesh’s industrial infrastructure. Five local and foreign entrepreneurs will receive awards during the event, highlighting success stories that the government hopes will inspire further investment.
Despite these ambitious initiatives, questions remain about whether the interim government can effectively translate investment promotion efforts into tangible economic results, particularly given the contradictory signals being sent by events unfolding simultaneously across the country.
Fundamentalist Attacks: Targeting International Businesses
On the very same day that Bangladesh’s interim government launched its ambitious investment summit, a wave of coordinated attacks against international businesses swept across the country. Pro-Palestine protesters targeted and vandalized multiple outlets of American fast-food chains KFC and Domino’s Pizza, as well as Bata shoe stores in several major cities, claiming these businesses have ties to Israel or provide financial support to the country.
The attacks, which occurred on April 7, 2025, were particularly widespread, affecting businesses in Sylhet, Chattogram, Khulna, Barishal, and Cumilla. In Sylhet, protesters extensively vandalized a KFC outlet located in the Mirboxtula area around 2:30 PM, throwing stones and damaging glass and furniture before hoisting a Palestinian flag on the wall of the showroom. The same group also targeted a Domino’s Pizza restaurant in Chowhatta and a Bata showroom in Dargah Gate.
In Chattogram, hundreds of agitated students and civilians vandalized a KFC outlet at GEC intersection and a Pizza Hut restaurant at Sanmar Ocean City Shopping Mall around 4:15 PM, shattering several glass panels. Protesters also damaged Coca-Cola signboards in different parts of the city. Similar scenes played out in Khulna, where a KFC outlet at Moylapota intersection was attacked around 6:30 PM, and in Barishal, where protesters vandalized a KFC signboard on Jibananda Das Road.
The protesters, who included students from various educational institutions as well as members of political and religious organizations, were participating in a global “No Work, No School” strike called by Palestinians in Gaza. Throughout the demonstrations, participants chanted slogans expressing solidarity with Palestine and condemnation of Israel and its allies, while carrying placards with messages calling for boycotts of Israeli goods.
Perhaps most troubling was the apparent lack of immediate police intervention during these attacks. In most locations, law enforcement arrived only after the damage had been done. In Barishal, Kotwali Model Police Station Officer-in-Charge Mizanur Rahman acknowledged the protests but downplayed the destruction, stating, “Although the KFC banner was broken, there was no major damage. The situation is currently under our control.”
It was only hours after the widespread vandalism that Inspector General of Police Baharul Alam issued instructions to arrest individuals responsible for the attacks. According to reports, the IGP stated, “We have video footage of the attackers. They are being identified and will be arrested immediately. Police teams are currently working on this.” This delayed response raises serious questions about whether security forces were instructed to stand down during the initial attacks.
The timing of these incidents—coinciding precisely with the Bangladesh Investment Summit 2025—creates a jarring contradiction that cannot be overlooked. While government officials were actively courting international investors inside Hotel InterContinental Dhaka, mobs were freely attacking the very symbols of foreign investment on the streets outside.
What makes this situation particularly concerning is the political context. Many of the fundamentalist groups involved in these protests have expressed support for the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus. Political parties including BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and NCP—all of which are expected to engage with investors at the summit—have members who participated in or tacitly supported these demonstrations.
The attacks represent more than just isolated incidents of vandalism; they signal a deeply troubling environment for international businesses operating in Bangladesh. For potential investors attending the summit, the contrast between the government’s investment rhetoric and the reality of mob violence against foreign businesses presents an alarming disconnect that threatens to undermine the very objectives the investment summit aims to achieve.
Analysis of Contradiction: Investment Promotion vs. Business Destruction
The stark contradiction between Bangladesh’s investment summit and the simultaneous attacks on international businesses represents more than a simple scheduling coincidence—it reveals fundamental inconsistencies in the interim government’s economic strategy and raises serious questions about its commitment to creating a stable investment climate.
This paradox is particularly troubling when examined through the lens of investor confidence. Foreign direct investment decisions hinge on perceptions of political stability, rule of law, and protection of assets. The images of KFC outlets and Bata stores being vandalized while investment presentations continued at Hotel InterContinental send a devastating message to potential investors: Bangladesh cannot guarantee the safety of foreign businesses already operating within its borders.
Economic data underscores the severity of this contradiction. According to the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), foreign investment has already fallen amid economic uncertainties, infrastructure constraints, and regulatory inconsistencies. The 20% year-on-year decline in FDI during the July-December period of FY25 reflects damaged investor confidence following the political transition. The April 7 attacks will likely exacerbate this downward trend, potentially undoing whatever positive impressions the investment summit might have generated.
The interim government’s response—or lack thereof—to these attacks further compounds the contradiction. Law enforcement’s delayed intervention and the absence of immediate, forceful condemnation from Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus or other senior officials suggests either tacit approval or a troubling inability to maintain public order. Either scenario severely undermines the government’s credibility as it attempts to position Bangladesh as an attractive investment destination.
This contradiction becomes even more pronounced when considering the specific targets of the attacks. The businesses vandalized—KFC, Domino’s Pizza, Bata—represent precisely the kind of international commercial presence that Bangladesh needs to expand if it hopes to achieve economic growth and create jobs. The justification for these attacks—alleged ties to Israel—appears tenuous at best, particularly in the case of Bata, a Swiss-headquartered company with minimal connections to Israel.
The political dimension adds another layer to this contradiction. Many of the fundamentalist groups involved in these protests have expressed support for the interim government. Political parties including BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and NCP—all of which are expected to engage with investors at the summit—have members who participated in or tacitly supported these demonstrations. This suggests a dangerous political calculation: allowing attacks on foreign businesses to appease certain constituencies while simultaneously courting international investment.
Muhammad Yunus’s economic vision, centered on “social business” that addresses societal needs, appears increasingly disconnected from the economic realities facing Bangladesh. While his theoretical framework emphasizes businesses that solve social problems, the practical implementation of economic policy under his leadership has failed to create the stability necessary for any business—social or otherwise—to thrive.
The contradiction extends to specific policy actions as well. While the interim government has struggled to make progress in most economic sectors, it has managed to secure tax exemptions for Yunus’s own business interests and approval for a university bearing his name. This selective approach to economic policy—benefiting connected insiders while failing to protect broader business interests—further erodes confidence in the government’s commitment to creating a level playing field for all investors.
As Bangladesh faces the looming threat of global recession, this fundamental contradiction in economic approach threatens to accelerate economic decline rather than mitigate it. The gap between investment rhetoric and on-the-ground reality has become too wide to ignore, raising profound questions about whether the interim government is genuinely committed to economic development or merely engaged in political theater with devastating economic consequences.
What’s Next: Economic Forecasts and Investment Outlook
As Bangladesh navigates this period of economic uncertainty and contradictory signals, several key trends are likely to shape the country’s economic trajectory in the coming months.
First, foreign direct investment is projected to remain under significant pressure through 2025. Economic analysts from major financial institutions forecast that the April 7 attacks on international businesses could trigger a further 15-20% decline in FDI commitments over the next two quarters. According to Dr. Ahsan Rahman, Senior Economist at the South Asian Economic Forum, “These incidents send precisely the wrong message at the wrong time. Potential investors who witnessed these attacks—either directly or through media coverage—will likely adopt a wait-and-see approach before committing capital to Bangladesh.”
The currency market is expected to experience continued volatility. While the Bangladesh Bank has managed to stabilize the taka somewhat in recent months, with gross forex reserves projected to cross $26 billion in March according to MCCI data, this progress could be undermined by declining investor confidence. Currency specialists predict the taka could depreciate by an additional 5-7% against the US dollar by the end of 2025 if the current political and economic uncertainties persist.
Inflation will remain a critical concern, with most economists projecting it will stay above 8% throughout 2025 despite the central bank’s tight monetary policy. Food price inflation in particular is expected to continue putting pressure on household budgets, potentially fueling social unrest. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics projects that essential commodity prices could rise by an additional 12-15% by year-end if global supply chain disruptions and local distribution challenges are not addressed.
The banking sector faces a particularly challenging outlook. Financial sector vulnerabilities are expected to worsen, with non-performing loans potentially reaching 15-18% of total outstanding loans by the end of 2025, according to projections from the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management. This deterioration would further constrain credit availability for businesses and potentially trigger a liquidity crisis if not addressed through comprehensive banking reforms.
Employment prospects remain concerning, with the labor market expected to weaken further. The Bangladesh Employers’ Federation estimates that formal sector job creation could contract by 3-5% in 2025 if current economic conditions persist, pushing more workers into the informal economy with lower wages and fewer protections.
The interim government’s political timeline adds another layer of uncertainty to economic forecasts. With elections scheduled for late 2025 or early 2026, policy decisions are increasingly likely to be influenced by political considerations rather than sound economic principles. This political-economic nexus could further complicate efforts to implement necessary but potentially unpopular economic reforms.
For the five priority sectors highlighted at the investment summit—renewable energy, digital economy, textile and apparel, healthcare and pharmaceuticals, and agro-processing—growth projections vary significantly. The textile and apparel sector, which has shown resilience with exports rising 12.8% year-on-year to $24.54 billion, is expected to maintain moderate growth of 5-7% annually. However, newer sectors like renewable energy and digital economy face greater uncertainty, with growth contingent on policy stability and protection from political disruptions.
International financial institutions have already begun revising their economic outlooks for Bangladesh. The World Bank’s downward revision of growth forecasts to 4% for fiscal 2024-25 may be followed by further reductions if the contradictions in economic policy persist. Similarly, Moody’s has signaled potential changes to Bangladesh’s credit outlook if governance issues and policy inconsistencies are not addressed.
The most concerning forecast relates to Bangladesh’s progress toward upper middle-income status. Economic modeling by development economists suggests that the current trajectory could delay this milestone by 3-5 years beyond the government’s target, representing a significant setback for the country’s long-term development goals. This delay would have cascading effects on poverty reduction efforts and human development indicators that had been improving steadily before the recent economic challenges.
Yunus’s Record: Eight Months of Stagnation
Yunus took power in August 2024 after Hasina’s ouster, promising reform. Eight months later, the scorecard is bleak. Economic growth forecasts for 2025 hover at 4.8%, per the Asian Development Bank’s April 2025 update—below the 6% needed to dent poverty, which afflicts 14.8% of Bangladeshis (BBS, 2024). Unemployment spiked to 3.51% in Q1 2025, adding 240,000 jobless, says the Dhaka Tribune. Garment factories, the economy’s backbone, shuttered 200 plants in 2024 amid protests, costing $10 billion, per the Foreign Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI).
What has Yunus delivered? Tax exemptions for Grameen Bank affiliates—his own brainchild—raising eyebrows. A new university named after him got the green light in February 2025, per The Economist’s March 29 report, while public schools crumble. Infrastructure? Power cuts hit daily, with the Adani Group slashing exports over $1.2 billion in unpaid debts from Hasina’s era, worsening outages, says Crisis Group’s January 2025 briefing. Reform commissions stall; the judiciary and police remain politicized, per Human Rights Watch.
Contrast this with Vietnam. Post-2016 reforms, it slashed red tape, boosted FDI by 300% in five years (World Bank, 2023), and kept unrest in check. Yunus’s Bangladesh drifts, not drives.
The Fundamentalist Factor: A Double-Edged Sword
The mobs aren’t random. Hefazat-e-Islam, a player in Yunus’s interim coalition, flexes muscle. Its adviser, A.F.M. Khalid Hossain, now oversees religious affairs, per Asia Society’s September 2024 analysis. Their agenda—Islamic governance—clashes with Bangladesh’s secular roots and spooks investors. Violence against Hindus, up to 127 incidents in 2024 from 47 in 2023 (HRW), fuels India’s ire, risking trade ties worth $12 billion annually, per India’s Ministry of Commerce.
Yet Yunus leans on them. Why? Political survival. The Awami League’s collapse left a vacuum; fundamentalists filled it. “He’s trading stability for support,” says Vina Nadjibulla of the Asia Pacific Foundation, in an April 5, 2025, Al Jazeera piece. The cost? A fractured image. The EU, eyeing Bangladesh’s garment exports ($40 billion in 2024, per BIDA), may rethink post-2029 trade perks, warns Crisis Group’s January 2025 Watch List.
The Economic Toll: Numbers Don’t Lie
Let’s crunch the data. Bangladesh’s garment sector, 11% of GDP, lost $1.5 billion in Q1 2025 from factory closures and buyer pullouts, per the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association. Foreign reserves could drop to $15 billion by July 2025 if trends hold, says the IMF’s March 2025 staff report—below the $17 billion red line for debt servicing ($32 billion due by 2026). The taka, down 15% since August 2024 (Bangladesh Bank), makes imports pricier, fueling inflation.
Compare this to 2010-2020, when FDI averaged $2 billion yearly (SANEM) and growth topped 7%. Today’s chaos could shave 1.5% off GDP by 2026, per the World Bank’s January 2025 forecast, pushing 2 million more into poverty. Investors see the math—and the mobs—and hesitate.
The Economic Contradiction That Threatens Bangladesh’s Future
The events of April 7, 2025, have laid bare a fundamental contradiction at the heart of Bangladesh’s economic strategy under the interim government. The simultaneous occurrence of an international investment summit and widespread attacks on foreign businesses represents more than an unfortunate coincidence—it reveals deep structural problems in governance, policy coherence, and security that threaten to undermine Bangladesh’s economic future.
For Bangladesh to navigate the looming global recession successfully, it must resolve this contradiction. The interim government cannot credibly court international investment while allowing—or at least failing to prevent—attacks on the very businesses that represent foreign capital already committed to the country. This disconnect between rhetoric and reality creates an environment of uncertainty that will inevitably deter potential investors at a time when Bangladesh desperately needs economic stability.
The path forward requires immediate and decisive action on multiple fronts. First, the interim government must demonstrate its commitment to protecting all businesses operating legally within Bangladesh, regardless of their perceived international affiliations. Second, comprehensive economic reforms must address the underlying vulnerabilities in the financial sector, inflation management, and regulatory framework. Third, policy coherence must be established between investment promotion efforts and on-the-ground security measures.
The stakes could not be higher. With global recession threatening economies worldwide, Bangladesh stands at a critical juncture where policy decisions made today will determine whether the country can maintain its development trajectory or face years of economic stagnation. The contradiction witnessed on April 7 suggests the interim government has not yet found the balance needed to navigate these treacherous economic waters.
As Bangladesh approaches elections scheduled for late 2025 or early 2026, economic management will inevitably become intertwined with political considerations. The challenge for Muhammad Yunus and his administration is to rise above short-term political calculations and implement policies that create genuine economic stability—even if those policies prove temporarily unpopular with certain constituencies.
The international community and potential investors will be watching closely to see whether the events of April 7 represent an anomaly or a pattern. The interim government’s response in the coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bangladesh can rebuild investor confidence or face further economic isolation.
For citizens, businesses, and investors alike, the need for clear-eyed analysis of Bangladesh’s economic realities has never been more urgent. The contradiction between investment promotion and business destruction cannot be ignored or explained away—it must be addressed through concrete policy changes and governance improvements if Bangladesh hopes to weather the economic storms ahead. Stay sharp with OngoingNow24 as we continue to monitor these developments and provide the in-depth analysis needed to understand Bangladesh’s evolving economic landscape.
Leave a Reply
