Fact-Checking a Nation in Crisis

The Collapse of Nation and the Rise of Conspiracy

Since August 2024, Bangladesh’s political landscape has been dramatically upended. In the wake of widespread protests, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina reportedly fled to India, leaving behind a nation gripped by uncertainty. What began as student-led demonstrations against a controversial job quota system quickly escalated into a broader revolt against perceived authoritarianism and economic mismanagement. Now led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, the interim government faces the enormous task of uniting a deeply divided society amid persistent allegations of foreign interference.

Unverified Claims and International Narratives

Central to the current discourse are unverified claims that USAID, operating under the guise of humanitarian aid, covertly funded radical groups to destabilize Hasina’s government. While USAID’s global health initiatives—such as PEPFAR—have saved millions of lives, some critics have conflated these efforts with isolated incidents of aid diversion. For instance, a 2024 scandal in Syria involving $9 million allegedly diverted to extremist groups has been cited by some as evidence of a broader conspiracy. However, such criminal incidents should not be interpreted as reflective of overall U.S. policy.

Geopolitical Chess: U.S., China, and Pakistan’s ISI

In January 2025, the Trump administration’s decision to freeze $487.5 million in USAID projects further strained Bangladesh’s already fragile economy, allegedly nudging the nation toward closer ties with China. Beijing—already entrenched in the region through over $10 billion in Belt and Road investments—seized the opportunity by offering additional loans for infrastructure and energy projects. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) reemerged as a significant, though shadowy, actor. In a historic move, its chief visited Dhaka for the first time in two decades to explore intelligence-sharing arrangements aimed at countering Indian influence. Allegations that the ISI supplied sniper rifles to former military personnel remain unproven, even as broader fears of covert operations persist. Adding to the complexity, warnings from Russia about a potential U.S.-orchestrated “Arab Spring” in Bangladesh have further muddied the geopolitical waters.

The Erosion of Meritocracy: Student Protests and Radical Shifts

What began in 2024 as a call for more equitable job opportunities soon morphed into a broader anti-government movement. Once hailed as champions of democracy, students have now been accused of aligning with Islamist factions such as Jamaat-e-Islami in a bid to consolidate power. Interim leader Muhammad Yunus, whose government depends heavily on military backing, has faced criticism for allegedly rewarding protest participants with government roles at the expense of merit-based appointments. Reports of vandalized national monuments—including the home of founding leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman—and attacks on women’s rights activists have further intensified the atmosphere of impunity. Moreover, the escape of more than 70 Islamist prisoners has fueled growing concerns about a potential extremist resurgence.

Economic Collapse and the Human Cost

The political instability has exacted a heavy toll on Bangladesh’s economy. Inflation has surged to 9.2%, while foreign reserves have plummeted to $24 billion, casting doubt on a pending $5 billion IMF bailout. The freeze on U.S. aid has disrupted critical programs, affecting maternal healthcare for 2 million women, food security for 16 million households, and climate resilience initiatives in coastal communities. In addition, the loss of over 20,000 jobs in the NGO sector has only deepened public disillusionment.

Reform Efforts and the Road to Recovery of Nation

In response to the crisis, interim leader Yunus has initiated a series of reforms—including the establishment of anti-corruption commissions and asset recovery drives—aimed at restoring public trust. Nevertheless, skepticism remains high, with recent surveys indicating that 60% of Bangladeshis doubt the transparency and effectiveness of the current government’s measures.

Separating a Nation Myth from Reality

While foreign interference and covert operations feature prominently in many narratives, the turmoil in Bangladesh cannot be attributed solely to external forces. Deep-rooted issues such as longstanding authoritarian practices and economic mismanagement have played a critical role in the nation’s descent into crisis. Although factors like the U.S. aid freeze and shifting global alliances have complicated the situation, the priority must be to restore democratic governance, hold credible elections, and implement sustainable economic reforms. Ultimately, Bangladesh’s future will depend on its ability to address internal challenges while resisting the lure of opportunistic geopolitical influences.